Household Loan Poverty in Türkiye: Financial Drivers, Welfare Consequences, and Banking Sector Risks
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17437162Anahtar Kelimeler:
Consumer Lending, Non-performing Loans, Credit Access, Banking Regulation, Asset QualityÖzet
The article investigates the phenomenon of loan poverty where households rely on debt for basic consumption among Turkish households and its implications for financial stability. Integrating financial vulnerability theory with banking-sector data, this study analyzes how credit access both alleviates and perpetuates poverty in a high-inflation, low-income context. Using panel data from the CBRT, BDDK, and Turk Stat (2015–2025), we find that while aggregate household debt is low (10-12% of GDP), the debt-to-income ratio for indebted households exceeds 70%. Econometric model results reveal that inflation and high interest rates are key drivers of this vulnerability, which in turn significantly increases poverty rates and non-performing loans (NPLs). The study concludes that loan poverty represents a dual social and financial stability threat and requires policy recommendations for inclusive credit, enhanced financial literacy, and coordinated banking–social policy reforms.
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